Posts

Posted on

Year-End Portland Market & Neighborhood Report, Dec 31, 2022

Overview/Fluctuations ~ December 31, 2022- YEAR-END Market Data:

Inventory has risen substantially over December last year, and steadily in the last few months. Average & Median Values have risen by approx. $40,000 over the last year, which is good, but not as substantial an annual  increase as in the previous few years. Activity/Volume (Actives/Pendings/Solds) decreased across the  board from the last year/2021 and mostly occurring in the last few months as an apparent reaction to rates.                                                                                       

Rates: “Rates are still hovering in the lower 6% range. There has been less volatility lately which is a positive sign.” Gary Boyer, Regional VP, Directors Mortgage                                    

The twelve months of 2022 compared to 2021: New Listings, (36,210) decreased 10.7%. Sales (26,852)  decreased 24.2%, and Closed Sales (27,985) decreased 20.5%. By Comparison, Twelve months of 2021 as compared to 2020 from last year’s December Report read:  New Listings, (40,531) increased 5.4%. Pending Sales (35,405) increased 7.8%, and Closed  Sales (35,182) increased 9.8%.

According to the RMLS Market Action Report  for the Portland Metro Area-Dec 2022:

  • There were 1,073 New Listings in Dec 2022 – down 32.9% from 1,599 in Dec 2021 and down 35.6% from the previous month/Nov’s 1,666.
  • At 1,464 Dec 2022’s Closed Sales (Solds) are down 43.3% from Dec 2021’s 2,582, and down 9.7% from the previous month/Nov 2022’s total of 1,621.
  • At 1,206 Dec 2022’s Pending Sales (accepted Offers) are down 37.9% from Dec 2021’s 1,942, and also down 19.5% from the previous month/Nov’s total of 1,498.
  • The Average Sale Price for December 2022 of, $566,700 is down $16,200 from last year/Dec 2021’s $582,900, and down $17,900 from the previous month/Nov’s $584,600.  YTD Average is 610,900, up 6.8%  (+15.8% in 2021)
  • The “Median” Sale Price (the price smack dab in the middle of all sales) in December 2022 of $507,500 is down $3,500 from last year/Dec 2021’s $511,000, and down $18,400 from the previous month’s $525,900.  YTD Median is 548,400, up 7.7%   (+15.7 % in 2021) 
Posted on

Portland Market Stats and Neighborhood Report, Nov 2022

Overview/Fluctuations ~ November Market Data:       

Inventory continues to increase and prices remain somewhat stable with many areas/neighborhoods of Portland rising from the previous month & some lowering a bit (see neighborhoods below). Actual activity dropping in New Listings, Accepted Offers (Pendings) & Closed Sales from both the previous month (seasonal) & last year (likely adjusting for interest rate fluctuations).

“Real Estate remains the #1 asset class as a protection against inflation.” Brian Buffini


Rates: “Rates have been improving with inflation pressures easing. Right now 30-year fixed rates are in the low 6% range.” Gary Boyer, Regional VP, Directors Mortgage

According to RMLS Market Action Report  for the Portland Metro Area-Nov 2022:

  • There were 1,666 New Listings in Nov 2022 – down 25.3% from 2,229 in Nov 2021 and down 33.7% from the previous month/Oct’s 2,513.
  • At 1,621 Nov 2022’s Closed Sales (Solds) are down 42.8% from Nov 2021’s 2,832, and down 17.1% from the previous month/Oct 2022’s total of 1,955.
  • At 1,498 Nov 2022’s Pending Sales (accepted Offers) are down 43.7% from Nov 2021’s 2,660, and also down 18.4% from the previous month/Oct’s total of 1,835.
  • The Average Sale Price in November 2022 of, $584,600 is up $9,000 from last year/Nov 2021’s $575,600, and down $7,400 from the previous month/Oct’s $592,000.  
  • The “Median” Sale Price (the price smack dab in the middle of all sales) in November 2022 of $525,900 is up $8,100 over last year/Nov 2021’s $517,800, and down $11,100 from the previous month’s $537,000.
Posted on

Portland Market Stats and Neighborhood Report, Oct 2022

Overview/Fluctuations ~ October Market Data:                                                                                                               

It’s fascinating to me as I take a look at this enigmatic market. Assessing neighborhoods (or areas of Portland) is of more interest to me than “overall” numbers as I can see closer to the ground that way. I added a couple columns so that we can look at the previous month/September vs October as that is where we can truly gauge the ultra-current local shifts. As much as I hear speculations about Buyer abstinence & power shifts in the market, I see that Inventory is up, and prices are not really doing anything dramatic. Some neighborhoods actually saw price increases in October over September, and the Median prices holding show that when push comes to shove, the price ranges people had in mind in  Sept held firm in October. This surprises me a little, and/but is heartening in the sense that it may indicate: folks are moving ahead with life plans regardless, prices have stabilized, and perhaps an understanding that rates are temporary & that there are options to change them down the road a bit.

Rates: “Inflation is showing signs of peaking which is good news for mortgage rates. 30-year fixed rates are in the mid 6’s right now.” Gary Boyer, Regional VP, Directors Mortgage 

According to the RMLS Market Action Report  for the Portland Metro Area-Oct 2022:

  • There were 2,513 New Listings in Oct 2022 – down 22.2% from 3,232 in Oct 2021 and down 20.2% from the previous month/Sept’s 3,151.
  • At 1,955 Oct 2022’s Closed Sales (Solds) are down 37.5% from Oct 2021’s 3,129, and down 12.6% from the previous month/Sept 2022’s total of 2,237.
  • At 1,835 Oct 2022’s Pending Sales (accepted Offers) are down 42.4% from Oct 2021’s 3,187, and also down 8.4% from the previous month/Sept’s total of 2,003.
  • The Average Sale Price in October 2022 of, $592,000 is up $16,800 from last year/Oct 2021’s $575,200, and down $6,700 from the previous month/Sept’s $598,700.  
  • The “Median” Sale Price (the price smack dab in the middle of all sales) in October 2022 of $537,000 is up $21,000 over last year/Oct 2021’s $516,000, and down $11,000 from the previous month’s $548,000.
Posted on

Portland Market Stats & Neighborhood Report, Sept 2022

Overview/Fluctuations ~ September Market Data:

Comparing the first nine months of 2022 to the same period in 2021, the Average Sale price has increased 8.6% overall and Median Sale price increased 8.9%. Sept volume in all categories (New, Pending & Sold) decreased from last year and the previous month, whereas in Sept of last year New Listings and Pending Sales actually increased. That said, this is now officially “Fall” and slowing down is normal. Inventory is up. Every year I especially tell Buyers that this is the absolute best time of year to buy in Portland, as Sellers tend to be more amenable to “discussions”, and this year this it’s particularly pertinent. I’m also advising my New Listing clients to get their properties on the market now in order to get them Sold prior to the holidays setting in. In all cases, we know what is happening in the market right now and can plan around that, whereas we don’t know what will be happening in the Spring, for instance. Rates: “Currently 30-year fixed rates are in the mid 6% range. Inflation pressures are persisting, however we have finally seen some leveling off on that front.” Gary Boyer, Regional VP, Directors Mortgage

According to the RMLS Market Action Report  for the Portland Metro Area-Sept 2022:

  • There were 3,151 New Listings in Sept 2022 – down 16.2% from 3,760 in Sept 2021 and down 1.7% from the previous month/August’s 3,209.
  • At 2,237 Sept 2022’s Closed Sales (Solds) are down 29.4% from Sept 2021’s 3,167, and down 13.3% from the previous month/August 2022’s total of 2,581.
  • At 2,003 Sept 2022’s Pending Sales (accepted Offers) are down 36.8% from Sept 2021’s 3,170, and also down 20.8% from the previous month/August’s total of 2,530.
  • The Average Sale Price in September 2022 of, $598,700 is up $27,200 from last year/Sept 2021’s $571,500, and down $9,000 from the previous month/August’s $607,700.  
  • The “Median” Sale Price (the price smack dab in the middle of all sales) in September 2022 of $548,00 is up $38,000 over last year/Sept 2021’s $510,000, and is nearly the same as the previous month’s $548,400.
Posted on

Portland Market Stats & Neighborhood Report, August 2022

Overview/Fluctuations ~ Market Data:  

As we move from summer to fall, we see a continuing trend of market stabilization. Inventory is still holding its own compared to last year but down slightly from the prior month. Prices are pulling back as far as the steep upward trend that we’ve been seeing, and activity remains strong with accepted Offers and Closings increasing in volume over July, and average time on market at 28 days. Even so, we’re slower this year than August 2021.

Rates: “Rates have pushed up based on inflation and are now around 6% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage.” Gary Boyer, Regional VP, Directors Mortgage                                                                                                                                                                                                

According to the RMLS Market Action Report  for the Portland Metro Area-Aug 2022:

  • There were 3,209 New Listings in August 2022– down 13.2% from 3,698 in August 2021 and down 14.7% from the previous month/July’s 3,763.
  • At 2,581 August 2022’s Closed Sales (Solds) are down 19.8% from August 2021’s 3,219, and up 8.9% from the previous month/July 2022’s total of 2,369.
  • At 2,530 August 2022’s Pending Sales (accepted Offers) are down 28.4% from August 2021’s 3,535, and also down 3.5% from the previous month/July’s total of 2,445.
  • The Average Sale Price in August 2022 of, $607,700 is up $24,100 from last year/August 2021’s $583,600, and took a quick dive of $28,000 from the previous month/July’s $635,700.  
  • The “Median” Sale Price (the price smack dab in the middle of all sales) in August 2022 of $548,400 rose from last year/August 2021’s $525,000 by $23,000, and is down $17,600 from the previous month’s $566,000.
Posted on

Portland Market Stats & Neighborhood Report, July 2022

Overview/Fluctuations ~   Happy August!  We’re seeing the market slow a bit, which is often a seasonal characteristic of the hot vacation weather and travel schedules, BUT, this year we’re also seeing things really pull back as a direct result of the overall economy in a good way…in a way that is creating more of a “normal” market where Buyers and Sellers each have their own leverage, and where negotiating on reasonable repair items and price is again “the norm”. Right on cue, more houses are going on the market (see Inventory). Anecdotal buzz goes right along with the data- Realtors seeing Buyers actually getting Offers accepted where they’ve been struggling till recently. The pace of upward push on pricing is easing, and all of this in time for inflation concerns to be lessening per recent headlines.  Overall, the word on the street is and the stats show that Portland housing market is evening out some.                                                     Rates: “Rates have moderated along with inflation and are coming down to the lower 5’s at this time.” Gary Boyer, Regional VP, Directors Mortgage                                                                                                                                                                                                 

According to the RMLS Market Action Report  for the Portland Metro Area-July 2022:

  • There were 3,763 New Listings in July 2022– down 11.8% from 4,267 in July 2021 and down 12.4% from the previous month/June’s 4,295.
  • At 2,369 July 2022’s Closed Sales (Solds) are down 31.1% from July 2021’s 3,439, and down 18.1% from the previous month/June 2022’s total of 2,893.
  • At 2,445 July 2022’s Pending Sales (accepted Offers) are down 27.1% from July 2021’s 3,354, and also down 4.6% from the previous month/June’s total of 2,563.
  • The Average Sale Price in July 2022 of, $635,700 is up $42,600 from last year/July 2021’s $593,100, and up $2,400 from the previous month/June’s $633,300.  
  • The “Median” Sale Price (the price smack dab in the middle of all sales) in July 2022 of $566,000 rose from last year/July 2021’s $522,000 by $44,000, and is down $4,000 from the previous month’s $570,000.
Posted on

Portland Market Stats ~ June 2022

Overview/Fluctuations ~ Market Data:
We are seeing the effects of interest rate increases in the Portland market. Gresham, Milwaukie, Oregon City and Tigard are holding their own as competitive for Buyers. The rest of the areas of Portland saw Buyers putting their collective foot down as evidenced by the Average Sale Prices compared with the previous month. We call this stabilization, so it’s actually a good thing. Inventory is rising to almost 2020 levels at 1.4 months, but 2018 was 2.1 months inventory and 2019 was 2.4 months, so you can see we’ve got a way to go before we’re back to those levels. Rates: Right now I’m told rates for primary/owner-occupied are at around 6.1% with great credit, utilizing a discount point and putting 20% down.

According to the RMLS Market Action Report  for the Portland Metro Area- June2022:

  • There were 4,295 New Listings in June 2022, which was down only slightly from June 2021’s 4,298, and up 11.5% from the previous month/May’s 3,853.
  • At 2,893 June 2022’s Closed Sales (Solds) are down 16.8% from June 2021’s 3,477, and down 0.8% from the previous month/May 2022’s total of 2,916
  • At 2,563 June 2022’s Pending Sales (accepted Offers) are down 27.5% from June 2021’s 3,534, and also down 17.9% from the previous month/May 2022’s total of 3,122.
  • The Average Sale Price in June 2022 of, $633,300 is up $36,200 from last year/June 2021’s $597,100, and down $16,300 from the previous month/May’s $649,600.  
  • The “Median” Sale Price (the price smack dab in the middle of all sales) in June 2022 of $570,000 rose from last year/June 2021’s $521,000 by $49,000, and is down $5,000 from the previous month’s $575,000.
Posted on

May 2022 Numbers

Overview/Fluctuations ~ Market Data:
Listings, Accepted Offers and Sales are up overall from the prior month and a bit down from last May. Most neighborhoods in the Portland area saw their Average Price rising over the previous month, and Inventory is finally back up to where it was last August, which is still historically low. Of course the big story at this moment is rates:
Rates: “The market has experienced a dramatic move higher as the Federal Reserve fights inflation. Currently 30-year fixed rates are right at 6.0%” Gary Boyer, Regional VP, Directors Mortgage

According to the RMLS Market Action Report  for the Portland Metro Area-May 2022:

  • There were 3,853 New Listings in May 2022 decreased 3.0% from May of 2021’s 3,971, and increased 4.6% from the previous month/April’s 3,684.
  • At 2,916  May 2022’s Closed Sales are down 8.4% from May 2021’s 3,183, and up 4.8% from the previous month/April’s 2022’s total of 2,782
  • At 3,122 May 2022’s Pending Sales are down 16.0% from May 2021’s 3,717, and increased 3.9% over the previous month/April 2022’s total of 3,005.
  • The Average Sale Price in May 2022 of $649,600 is up $67,400 from last year/May 2021’s $582,200, and up $16,700 from the previous month/April’s $632,900.  
  • The “Median” Sale Price (the price smack dab in the middle of all sales) in May2022 of $575,000 rose from last year/May 2021’s $515,000 by $60,000, and $15,000 from the previous month/April’s $560,000.
Posted on

Negotiating in this Market

I thought I’d take the easy way out and cut & paste a section out of my own Homebuyer’s Class for my post this week as I’m kind of busy with…real estate. When I looked at the section on Tips for Offering, I realized I think my own class document needs an update given the current state of the market! Here are a few things I realized I might like to address:

Love Letters- I’ve been writing these on behalf of my clients for many, many years, and have indeed won homes for my clients (been told) on the strength of the letters I wrote. I have never encouraged my clients to write their own letters as I believe it is a stronger position for me to advocate on their behalf. That said, my focus is always their strength as Buyers and whatever they bring to the table in terms of job stability, their actual love of the particular home/property (read: commitment), and other such things. I definitely do not use photos of the Buyers. There is a big debate going on around the issue of these letters (mainly the ones Buyers write about themselves), and it revolves around Fair Housing concerns. This has gotten to the point where they were outlawed for a time, and now that has been overturned and they are again allowed (as of this writing). NOTE: It is never OK to try to appeal to a perception of a Seller’s preference for race, gender, familial status or other protected class positions. Never. So, if you’re ever in the position of deciding whether to deliver such a letter, please keep this in mind, and consult with me! Or your Realtor ; )

Lower Offers (and how best to make them)- Well… this one is just nearly N/A in the current market. I say “nearly” as it does happen, but usually not at the outset unless a property has been sitting on the market for what is considered a longer period of time or if it was priced too high to begin with (which is usually why a property is still on the market). It *can* happen that the price goes down after certain things are revealed in the inspection process to compensate, but most properties are selling above their asking price, & often well above.

How to Win- It has been the case for awhile that multiple offers have driven prices up significantly over asking, and/but we think we are seeing a teensy bit of pullback in at least the amount of overage. This is more due to Buyers backing off than to more properties entering the market as we still see record-low Inventory. The way this has been playing out in a “multiple” bidding situation to date, is that the Offers guaranteeing they’ll bring a certain amount of cash to the Closing table in the event of a lower Appraisal are the Offers that get chosen as it’s less risk/more reliable for a Seller. (*Little understood fact, fyi: The “Closed” sale price effectively sets a new value standard in the neighborhood regardless of what it appraised at during the transaction. ; ) This tactic is obviously limited to those who *have * the cash to do that, and the whole scenario is part of what’s driving the angst /frustration around this supply and demand phenomenon and how it affects, say, first-time home-buyers. Considering the fierce competition driving prices higher, Appraisers and Realtors alike have been wishing for a calmer, more “readable/predictable” market, and several factors *may* be causing this to be the case very soon. In the meantime, there are ways to win even if you don’t have the cash…or don’t think you do. One is to look in a lower price range than you want to buy in. This way you are able/have the means to at least push your Offer price over the heads of much of the competition. There are a few other things you can do to get an edge, but we can talk about those one-on -one ; )